In her article Mary Agnes Welch was not completely correct in her analysis.
Three days before the 2006 election, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper won a minority government, the Winnipeg Free Press published a front-page story suggesting then-Liberal MP Anita Neville could be about to lose her seat to the Tories. A Probe Poll, done only of voters in the hotly contested riding, showed Neville neck-and-neck with her Conservative rival, lawyer Michael Richards. Both had the support of 32 per cent of decided voters.
On election day, though, Neville won by 3,200 votes, mostly taken, if the poll numbers can be trusted, from the NDP. It was widely believed that front-page story convinced just enough New Democrats to vote Liberal as a strategic move to defeat the Tories.
Not sure what the polls said about the NDP but in 2006 our candidate, Mark Wasyliw, had the highest count and percentage of any election. It is more likely that some Liberals decided to not vote Conservative. The total Liberal and Conservative vote in 2004 and 2006 were similar.